Weather outlook: Spring prediction for northern NSW
IN A MARKED turnaround from last year, the coming months could see considerable rainfall across northern NSW with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting a wet spring.
In their climate outlook released last week, BOM predictions for August to October indicate a wetter than average three-month period for most of the eastern two thirds of Australia, and parts of WA.
"Both days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across Australia during August to October, though chances of warmer or cooler than average days are roughly equal across parts of inland NSW, northern Victoria, SA and southern WA," the outlook states.
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BOM senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said there have been cooler temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean which could be indicative of a La Nina event.
"We're not quite there yet, but the bureau is at a La Nina watch which means there's double the normal chance of a La Nina event occurring.
"We are seeing an increased chance of above average rainfall across much of Australia, especially in the east (during August to October)."
Dr Bettio said earlier this year there were wetter conditions leading into winter, and while we had a dry June there has been wetter than average totals recorded in parts of Australia.
Looking at temperature forecasts, Dr Bettio said for August to October the BOM model predicted above average daytime maximum temperatures for northern NSW, as well as above average minimum temperatures.
Bureau manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins said changes in the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean indicated a rise in the chance of a La Nina event this year.
"Tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have cooled in recent weeks, and models suggest this cooling will continue through winter and into spring," Dr Watkins said.
"Temperatures in the top 150 metres of the tropical Pacific are also cooler than average. This means that the surface cooling is not likely to disappear quickly.
"This cooling is likely to be driving the wet outlook for much of eastern Australia in the coming months."