Rainfall totals in spring, according to the weather bureau.
Rainfall totals in spring, according to the weather bureau. Bureau of Meteorology

Spring to bring hotter, drier conditions than average: BoM

DRIER and warmer than average conditions are expected to continue over the next three months, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The spring (September to November) climate outlook, issued 15 August 2019, indicates a drier than average season is likely for most of mainland Australia.

Spring maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average, except in the southeast, which has a 50-50 chance of warmer or cooler than average days.

Median daytime temperatures for the Northern Rivers across spring sits around 25-27C.

There is a 75 per cent chance of 100-200mm of rain across the region for spring, the average rainfall totals during this time is around 200-280mm.

Spring nights are likely to be warmer across northern and western Australia.

BoM said the forecast for drier than average conditions meant more cloud-free days and nights than average are likely, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.

"The likelihood of drier conditions is stronger in October compared with September," BoM said.

"September is likely to be drier across the north and small scattered areas of the south, while October is likely to be drier across most of the mainland.

Climate Influences

BoM said Tasman Sea pressure patterns are favouring a reduction in onshore flow for parts of the east coast of Australia, and likely contributing to the warmer and drier conditions forecast across NSW and southern Queensland.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral for the remainder of 2019.

"In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures," the summary reads.

"Climate influences include a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and an ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific Ocean."

The spring summary said the Indian Ocean continues to exhibit patterns consistent with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Typically, positive IOD means below average rainfall for much of central and southern Australia during winter-spring.

"The positive IOD is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia during the next three months."