Revealed: NSW’s future in the hands of minor parties
NSW is on the brink of a hung parliament within days, with Labor locked neck and neck with the government in polling as the state prepares to go to the ballot box.
An exclusive YouGov/Galaxy statewide poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph has found the major parties are deadlocked 50-50 two-party preferred.
This would see Premier Gladys Berejiklian most likely forced to strike a deal with independents to form the next parliament.
Ms Berejiklian only narrowly edges out Labor leader Michael Daley as preferred premier 38-36, but another 26 per cent of voters are uncommitted on the crucial question.
The results show the government's primary vote slumping from their 2015 election result by close to five percentage points - from 45.6 per cent to 41. Labor's primary vote grows by almost four points from 34.1 to 38.
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The poll also confirmed voters will punish the government at the ballot box for their pledge to invest in stadiums, with 47 per cent of voters saying the $2.2 billion commitment made them less likely to vote for the Coalition. Only 16 per cent said they were more likely to vote for the Coalition over the stadiums plan.
The Greens claim 9 per cent of the primary vote, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 3 per cent and Pauline Hanson's One Nation 1 per cent.
Following the allocation of preferences, this results in a neck-and-neck two-party preferred of 50-50 - a swing to Labor of 4.3 per cent from Mike Baird's 2015 victory.
This is a tightening of the vote from The Daily Telegraph's last statewide poll, conducted in November, which put Labor ahead 52-48.
If a swing of four percentage points was to be uniform across the state on Saturday, Labor could win six seats and force Ms Berejiklian into minority government.
This would leave her reliant on the support of independents to govern the state.
This is not the preferred outcome for voters, with 51 per cent saying a minority government would be a bad outcome for the state.
This poll, a sample of 1016 voters across the state, was taken before The Daily Telegraph broke the story of Mr Daley's doublespeak over Chinese immigration.
The Daily Telegraph has conducted three separate sets of marginal-seat polling over three weeks in the lead-up to today's statewide Galaxy poll.
Every seat considered - Ryde, East Hills, Lismore, Barwon, Penrith and Goulburn - has consistently recorded swings away from the government. The polling has predicted every seat either to be lost or too close for comfort.
The Nationals are at risk on the north coast and in rural seats like Barwon and Murray.
The Liberals now face a fierce fight in a string of inner-city seats as well as regional seats like Goulburn and Coffs Harbour.