Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Coalition face a heavy defeat in the upcoming federal election. Picture: Nigel Hallett
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Coalition face a heavy defeat in the upcoming federal election. Picture: Nigel Hallett

ScoMo losing support from Queenslanders

SCOTT Morrison has spectacularly lost crucial support in Queensland in a shock result that points to a cashed-up Clive Palmer as a kingmaker on election night.

And in the first opinion poll since Labor's controversial new asylum seeker "medevac" laws, the exclusive YouGov Galaxy survey reaffirms that voters believe the Coalition is overwhelmingly better on border security.

In a stunning turn, the Coalition's primary vote has plummeted in the state that the Morrison Government needs to hold to keep Bill Shorten out of The Lodge.

The LNP's primary vote has fallen to 35 points, down from 38 per cent in November and 43.2 per cent in July 2016.


The two-party preferred result now favours Labor 52 to the LNP's 48. If an election was held today, that would more than double Labor's eight seats in Queensland.

The outcome will devastate the Prime Minister and Queensland's 21 LNP MPs, who were yesterday celebrating a "cracker" week in Parliament.

The survey of 810 voters statewide was taken on Wednesday and Thursday at the height of Labor's move to make it easier for asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru to get medical treatment in Australia.

But despite the LNP's poor showing in today's poll, Labor has again failed to benefit from the dissatisfaction, with the softened LNP vote moving to Mr Palmer's United Australia Party.

Labor's primary vote is at a stubborn 34 per cent and has remained at that figure in August and November polls.

The Greens, whose preferences generally flow to Labor, are up one point to 10 per cent.

One Nation's vote slipped to 8 per cent, down 1 per cent from November. The party polled just 5.5 per cent in 2016.


Mr Palmer, who is spending $4 million a month on advertising, has clocked up a primary vote of 5 per cent.

It was 1 per cent in November, showing he is taking votes from the LNP and One Nation.

But significantly, 8 per cent of voters are parking their votes with independents, including Katter's Australian Party.

There is now a tussle on for the disaffected voter at the next election. Mr Palmer, who has indicated he will run in the seat of Herbert, is now emerging as a kingmaker because his preferences could decide who wins a number of regional Queensland seats.

Senior LNP strategists last night conceded the party's political brand was in decline but said internal "aided polling" (where an MP's name is used instead of the name of a political party) was positive.

The Courier-Mail has seen recent internal polling that reveals Queensland federal MPs are in a better position since former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull's knifing.

Many lost support straight after his dumping but now MPs are in the best political position they have been in since 2017 and 2018.

It comes as voters believe the Coalition has the best plan on Australia's border security, at 44 per cent.

Labor recorded just 29 per cent and 40 per cent of its own voters who did not think they had the better plan.

It will reinforce that the Government is on a winner on the issue and will double-down on its messaging.