Expert tipster's preview of Coffs Harbour race meet
Expert tipster Neil Evans has previewed a cracking race meeting at Coffs Harbour Racing Club on Tuesday.
Here's his tips on what will be racing on a wet track. With the first race to run at 1.15pm.
Showcase meeting on likely Heavy 8 rating, with rail out 4m from 1000m to 350m where cut/away applies and true the remainder, so expecting on or near the speed early before trending away from the fence
RACE 1 @ 1.15pm TREVOR HARDY SPRINT HCP (1012m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Some good tough sprinters kick us off, and you could build a winning case for any of the top few saddlecloths.
Ultra consistent Armidale 4YO 4. COCKY ROCKY (William Waine/Ben Looker) hasn't finished further back than second in his last four, including a dominant Class 3 win at Tamworth three runs back, and draws to get a lovely run on speed.
MAIN DANGERS: Local 6YO gelding 1. Evopex has done very little in two runs back from a spell, but drops in weight and returning to home track where he has won two from three are big plusses. Over the odds. Grafton mare 2. She's Choosie won two straight leading all the way before finding the rise in class, including last-start Saturday grade at Doomben, a little tough. Better suited back to the track where she won her only previous start.
Tempo: Fair to Good
My Betting Attack: Cocky Rocky to Qin and Quinella 1 and 4
RACE 2 @ 1.50pm LORD JIM MAIDEN PLATE (810m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim:
No loafing here over the short dash, and looks tailor made at second start for 4YO Wyong mare 6. PRINCESS ARIANA (Kristen Buchanan/Jake Hull) who went hard on debut at home over a longer journey, and was swamped a fair way out. Drops in quality and trip from an ideal draw.
MAIN DANGERS: Liked the heavy track trial from debutant 3YO local filly 10. Vallejo (Written Tycoon x Escobar by Not A Single Doubt) who draws a soft gate; while 4YO Taree gelding 1. Man And Superman resumes without a public trial, and has good early speed, but can't afford a backward step over this trip from the inside under a hefty 59kg.
My Betting Attack: Princess Ariana to Win and Quinella 6 and 10
RACE 3 @ 2.25pm ELITE TED MAIDEN PLATE (1215m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim):
Still with the maidens, but more depth over a longer trip. Grafton 3YO filly 10. HOLIDAY IN DUBAI (Wayne S. Lawson/Matthew McGuren) can break through at third start down in weight over more ground. Flew home on debut before inside draw didn't suit at second start when working home from a long way back as a rock-solid favourite.
MAIN DANGERS: Wyong 4YO gelding 5. Sethlans resumes off a six month break without an official trial. Looks hard to beat on face value, but be wary of taking too short a price drawn the inside for a galloper that will likely settle off the speed. Lightly-raced Wyong filly, and stablemate to previous top selection, 12. Sepplime will need to improve on two career runs so far, but draws well and the more rain the better.
Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: Holiday In Dubai to Win and Quinella 5 and 10
RACE 4 @ 3.05pm ELITE SCORE F & M CLASS 1 HCP (1415m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Fillies & Mares; Weights Raised 0.5kg & apprentices can claim:
Competitive and testing race, although improving 3YO Newcastle filly 3. SERRIANO (Kris Lees/Andrew Gibbons) can take the next step after finally breaking her maiden from off the speed at Dubbo. Had disappointed in a few runs prior, but be mindful she was always in very handy maiden company, and on potential alone, this isn't any stronger.
MAIN DANGERS: Another one from the Kristen Buchanan stable at Wyong, 5YO mare and former Victorian 2. Value Abbey charged home at big odds in a Class 2 at Scone, and despite a 3.5kg weight rise, will be getting home late again. Tamworth mare 6. Mystic Splendour will also get back from the inside gate, and need some luck and the pace right on from the 600m, but she's capable of driving into the finish; while 4YO Grafton mare 8. Multiplied has a poor record, but a real liking for soft ground and draws okay.
Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: Serriano to win
RACE 5 @ 3.40pm SAVE A BUCK MAIDEN HCP (1415m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Back to maiden class for one of the more open and toughest battles on the card. Keen on 4YO 6. GRAND ANTHEM (Cathleen Rode/Darryl McLellan) fourth-up for an emerging local stable. Hit the line nicely in heavy ground this track last start, and looks ready to peak.
MAIN DANGERS: Progressive 3YO Kris Lees-trained filly 9. Delavigne looks well placed fourth-up from a nice draw, with the blinkers going on. Similarly, improving 3YO stablemate 3. Kumana also looks over the odds at second start. Was only even through the line on debut at Tamworth, but the winner is a promising provincial-based youngster. Yet another Lees runner, 3YO colt 4. Political was a length further back on debut in that same race behind smart Fonce Factor, and the blinkers go on. Armidale 3YO 1. Thousand Island has a big finish, and shown enough in two runs to start his career, but first try in soft ground is a query.
Tempo: Moderate to Reasonable
My Betting Attack: Grand Anthem Each Way and Trifecta 3,6,9/1,3,4,6,9/1,3,4,6,9
RACE 6 @ 4.15pm GLENN COLLESS C, G & E CLASS 1 HCP (1415m) - Min Weight 55kg; Colts, Geldings & Entires; & apprentices can claim:
Plenty of chances and value in this one too headed by lightly raced Grafton 3YO 10. VOLFANI (Greg Kilner/Leah Kilner a0kg) who steps up for only fourth start after a dominant maiden win at Ballina. Bred to run this right out, and with a significant weight drop looks well over the odds.
MAIN DANGERS: Progressive 4YO Pt Macquarie gelding 4. Sebago can peak at fourth run this prep, and draws to get a cosy trail just off the speed. Doubt there is a more talented horse in the wider region who has still only won once from 23 starts (10 placings) than 4YO Wyong gelding Hubble who has been stiff in his last couple rocketing home from the back. Hard fit, and not badly treated only 3kg over the limit weight, but again will be forced to go a long way back from the outside draw. Home track 4YO gelding 1. A Million Dreams is a reliable weight carrier who has fought hard in three runs this prep. Suited over slightly longer trip, and can peak here; while Gold Coast 3YO 7. Montez is primed for this distance down in weight after finishing strongly in his last two.
Tempo: Moderate to Good
My Betting Attack: Volfani Each Way and Trifecta 2,4,10/1,2,4,7,10/1,2,4,7,10
*RACE 7 @ 4.50pm ZAC PURTON BM 66 HCP (1615m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
One of the highlight races across a big field, with naturally plenty of chances, and of course pattern and tempo will be crucial late in the meeting. Apart from a failure at Doomben two runs back, the form of promising mare 9. MUMMENTUM (Kris Lees/Ms Louise Day a0kg) from the Lees base on the Gold Coast is impossible to knock. Swept home to win a BM 58 at Grafton in heavy ground three back, and recently finished hard to just miss in a good Class 3 at the Sunshine Coast. Drawn out and rises 2.5kg in weight, but has a class edge.
MAIN DANGERS: Grafton 7YO 3. Central Witness in exotics after charging home to win at big odds in heavy ground at Pt Macquarie third-up; while 9YO Wyong gelding 5. Bluesbro is best of the rest.
Tempo: Fair to Good
My Betting Attack: Mummentum to win
RACE 8 @ 5.30pm CLARE PARK THOROUGHBREDS BM 66 HCP (1315m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Same grade to finish over shorter trip, and it doesn't get any easier. Pt Macquarie 4YO gelding 2. ACOUSTIX (Tas Morton/Ms Jenny Duggan a0kg) won two straight before a big finishing effort in the Country C'ships Qualifier at Taree, and then edged out late in the heavy at home. Should take up a nice position just off the speed, but carries his biggest weight in a long time.
MAIN DANGERS: Plenty of them headed by 4YO local gelding 5. Lose The Snip who has been banging on the door all year, generally in stronger company, but has a habit of not sealing the deal just when he looks the winner. His best has him in the finish, but climbing to 60.5kg from a wide draw is a big leveller. Gold Coast 5YO gelding 14. Usurp must be a chance at the weights coming out of three tidy efforts in Qld against deeper opposition, although best form is on firmer footing. Home track 4YO gelding 11. Banjo's Voice looks suitably placed third-up down a little in weight from a good trailing draw.
My Betting Attack: Acoustix Each Way and Box Trifecta 2,5,11,14
NEIL'S BEST BETS:
R2 6. PRINCESS ARIANA** Expect: $2.75 - $2.85; My Early Rating: $1.95
R4 3. SERRIANO* Expect: $4.00 - $4.25; My Early Rating: $2.85
R7 9. MUMMENTUM** Expect: $3.15 - $3.45; My Early Rating: $2.25
R8 2. ACOUSTIX* Expect: $4.25 - $4.50; My Early Rating: $3.05
**My BEST VALUE:
R1 1. EVOPEX* Expect: $5.25 - $6.00; My Early Rating: $3.80
R5 6. GRAND ANTHEM** Expect: $5.25 - $5.50; My Early Rating: $3.65
R5 9. DELAVIGNE* Expect: $8.00 - $9.00; My Early Rating: $4.95
R6 10. VOLFANI** Expect: $7.50 - $8.50; My Early Rating: $4.80
*JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Ben Looker, Andrew Gibbons
*TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
Kris Lees, Kristen Buchanan
COFFS HARBOUR RACING
Next Meeting: Tues, APRIL 14